Italy-China Trade Trends: Export and Import Dynamics

The reduction of Italian exports to China in 2024 is a phenomenon with multiple causes. Firstly, domestic demand in China experienced a slowdown, with consumer growth falling short of expectations. Secondly, the price competitiveness of some Italian products has come under pressure due to international competition and logistical tensions. Moreover, the ongoing redefinition of global supply chains, with a growing trend towards regionalisation of trade, has played a role.

If we analyse Chinese customs data, while imports of Italian products into China registered a year-on-year decrease of 3.2 per cent in 2024, this performance is better than the European average (-4.4 per cent) and outperforms key markets such as France (-5.9 per cent) and Germany (-10.7 per cent).

The withdrawal from the Belt and Road Initiative memorandum appears to have been managed diplomatically in the best possible way, without a direct impact on economic relations. Furthermore, the agreement has been replaced by a three-year action plan focused on cooperation in sectors such as trade, healthcare, sustainability, finance, culture, and innovation, as part of the renewed global strategic partnership between Italy and China.

At the same time, the data from 2024 confirms an increase in Chinese imports, driven in particular by consumer electronics, industrial components, and basic chemical products. However, we are witnessing a transitional phase, with selective relocation towards Southeast Asian countries such as Vietnam, Thailand, and Indonesia, which is reshaping international economic relations.

China remains an essential industrial hub, the second-largest supplier for Italy after Germany. According to World Bank data, about 28 per cent of global manufacturing production is still concentrated in China. In the medium term, the evolution of trade flows will depend on several factors, including tariffs and geopolitical tensions, Europe’s strategic autonomy, and China’s investments in more resilient supply chains.

Trade barriers and the ongoing trade war between Washington and Beijing are encouraging a stronger relationship between China and Europe, potentially leading to a partial rebalancing of trade dynamics. However, China’s strategic repositioning towards third-country production will influence the future balance of imports, while maintaining its role as a key supplier to the Italian market.